The first of my weekly FantasyPros Discord AMA sessions is in the books. I’ll be answering questions every Friday at 3:00 p.m. ET on the FantasyPros Discord server. The following five topics came up repeatedly in the first AMA, and this recap will allow me to expand upon them more broadly.
Friday’s Fantasy Football Discord AMA Recap
Should Gamers Panic About Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce, and What’s the Outlook for Isaiah Likely?
The questions about Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce came in fast and furious, with an emphasis on the furious part. It’s the perfect time to remind gamers not to panic about one game. Andrews had only two targets, two receptions and 14 scoreless yards, and Kelce had four targets, three receptions and 34 scoreless yards. It was a less-than-ideal start to the 2024 season for them.
Still, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Andrews was third on the Ravens in routes, running 38. Lamar Jackson had 51 dropbacks, leaving Andrews’ route participation rate at 74.5%. Obviously, it would be ideal for him to exceed 80%, especially if the Ravens pass at a lower rate when they have favorable game scripts. Nevertheless, gamers must hope he was rusty after missing practice reps after a car accident in August.
Kelce ran a team-high 26 routes on Patrick Mahomes‘ 31 dropbacks. The veteran tight end’s 83.9% route participation was excellent. Furthermore, Kansas City’s explosive offense should provide Kelce and the other skill-position players ample weekly touchdown potential. There’s no reason to panic about Kelce.
Gamers have every reason to be excited about Isaiah Likely. He had a dominant showing in the box score, securing nine receptions for 111 receiving yards, a touchdown and another near touchdown. He had an eye-popping 29.3% target share. Perhaps more importantly, he was fourth on the Ravens in routes (35), running one on 68.6% of Jackson’s dropbacks. Likely also had an absurd 34.3% targets per route run rate (TPRR). Likely’s TPRR and target share are unsustainable, but if he continues to have a high TPRR or sees an uptick in route participation, he can finish as a top-10 or better tight end weekly. Likely is a high-priority waiver claim.
Handling Defenses in Week 1 and Beyond
User “ticonami,” asked if they should stream the Steelers, Falcons, Vikings or Saints defense in Week 1. User “Phinyo,” asked if they should drop the Bills defense to stream the Vikings defense. Additionally, user “ek” asked how much of their $100 FAAB budget they should use on the Jets defense after someone in their 12-team league dropped Gang Green’s defense for the Bengals defense.
Getting hung up on top fantasy defenses is a mistake. Streaming, unless your league has a strict move limit, is ideal. Even the best defenses are lousy fantasy options against quarterbacks who avoid sacks, such as Mahomes and Josh Allen. They’re also not desirable against quarterbacks who take care of the football, like Aaron Rodgers. Instead, the goal is to use defenses against sack-prone and turnover-prone quarterbacks, especially when the defense is also a betting favorite and at home. Let others in your league overvalue their defense while you stream your way to a top-10 scoring average at the position throughout the season. This week, the Seahawks, Falcons, Chargers and Buccaneers are favorites at home and available in over 60% of Yahoo! leagues. Additionally, the Seahawks are early favorites in Week 2 against the Patriots in New England, making them an appealing selection to avoid fighting with other streamers for a defense next week.
Rostering Backup Tight Ends and Streaming the Position
Circling back to tight ends, “kcian” asked if they should add Pat Freiermuth to their bench with Dallas Goedert already on their roster. The short answer is no. Yet, this question allows me to expand on the topic of low-end starting tight ends. Goedert is essentially the last of the tight ends worth holding as a weekly starter before dipping into streamer territory.
Speaking of streaming territory, many users asked about punting the position in their drafts and streaming tight ends. In Week 1, Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are my two favorite widely available streamers. They’re attached to implied totals of 23.75 points and 24, respectively. They should also both have high route participation rates. Gamers streaming the position should attack high implied totals, chasing a touchdown, and high route participation rates.
Cincinnati’s Wide Receiver Situation
Many Discord users asked about Cincinnati’s wide receivers. Let’s tackle the group as a whole. Tee Higgins is listed as doubtful in Week 1 with a hamstring injury, and Ja’Marr Chase is questionable but was a full participant in Friday’s practice. Andrei Iosivas is an intriguing flex play or emergency starter for gamers with Higgins. He’s also an excellent stash for gamers hunting for a lottery ticket. Iosivas could be a weekly fantasy starter if Higgins’ hamstring injury lingers.
Furthermore, if the sophom*ore wideout plays well, Iosivas could carve out a substantial role even when Higgins returns. Per Sumer Sports, the Bengals had the fourth-highest 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wideouts) rate (74.2%) in 2023 and the second-highest (83.9%) in 2022. So, if Iosivas plays well, he can remain a mainstay on the field when Higgins is healthy.
Two-for-One Trades
I’ll keep the final topic short and sweet. A handful of Discord AMA participants asked if they should offer two-for-one trades to league mates. Consolidating two fringe starters or rock-solid starters for a superstar is ideal this early in the year, but most gamers aren’t looking to receive two players and cut one in Week 1. Everyone is still riding high after their drafts and optimistic about the players they’ve drafted. The time for imbalanced trades is when injuries hit and the bye weeks begin.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
